Many factors feed Heels' early stumble
Jan 15, 2009
Hard to say which commands more scrutiny and debate these days, the Obama inauguration or the fact the 2009 North Carolina men lost their first two ACC basketball games. Actually, around here the Tar Heels are the bigger topic of conversation. Not even Thursday’s win at lowly Virginia could soothe those wondering what’s wrong with a team that less than two weeks ago was celebrated as a living masterpiece, a model of college basketball art.
Of course Carolina could still wind up as national champions, the implicit prediction in its No.1 preseason ranking. But before UNC gets there, a little remedial work clearly is in order. Call them speculations, observations, or excuses, what follows are factors to consider in the Heels’ unexpected stumble:
-- Carolina was supposed to possess remarkable depth, and did before injuries whittled down the active roster. Promising 7-foot freshman Ty Zeller was lost for the season with a broken wrist after two games, and integral senior Marcus Ginyard played only three times for limited periods after sustaining a foot injury prior to preseason practice.
Zeller was an immediate factor inside. In two contests he got to the line 10 times, one try fewer than starting wing Danny Green managed in the team’s first 15 games. Zeller’s contribution was amplified by the off-season transfer of big man Alex Stepheson, who averaged nearly 15 minutes per game in 2008.
Ginyard’s absence presents an interesting dilemma. The longer his recovery period extends, the tougher it will be for him to come back, get in playing shape, and have an impact this season. Appear in one more game and he can’t redshirt; fail to play and UNC may not win the title, given that he is the team’s defensive stopper on the perimeter.
In the Heels’ reduced circumstances, opponents like Wake can deploy more players for longer periods of time. The loss of quality depth lessens the advantage in numbers essential to prosecuting Roy Williams’ signature, fast-paced style of attack.
-- Bobby Frasor, a hard-working senior with good leadership skills, has never returned to the form he displayed as an underclassman. The combo guard lost his shooting touch last year, and hasn’t found it yet. A few plays before Frasor blew out his knee and was lost for the 2008 season, teammates were congratulating him on making a 3-pointer after an extended struggle. He finished the year hitting 30 percent of his threes (9-30).
This season Frasor has been comparably inaccurate. That means more minutes for Will Graves, whose ballhandling is far less steady, in part to boost the squad’s perimeter punch.
-- Williams bristled when a sympathetic reporter questioned his team’s commitment to defense following a late-December win over Rutgers. “I’m 58 years old,” the coach said. “Defense has been the priority every day I’ve been alive.”
That statement was repeated recently to an assistant coach at another ACC school, who reacted with incredulity. “Roy said that?” he asked. “Come on!”
Williams has many strengths as a coach, but controlling a game with his team’s defense is not notable among them. At least it has not been a North Carolina trademark since the Hall of Famer returned to the fold from Kansas. A telling exception was the 2005 squad’s play during its NCAA run to the national championship.
The Tar Heels led the league in scoring and scoring margin in three of the past four years, and lead again in both categories this season. But UNC’s scoring defense has ranked in the ACC’s upper half only once in Williams’ five full seasons. Only the 2006 squad led the league in field goal percentage defense, a stat the coach stresses. This season the Heels rank near the bottom of the ACC in both categories.
--More often than not, coaches have difficulty getting successful, veteran units to sustain their concentration and enthusiasm over the course of a season. Notwithstanding vows to the contrary, players almost inevitably come to take things for granted, particularly their own prowess. Consider the fact no national champion since Duke in 1992 started and ended the season atop the AP poll.
The top-ranked Tar Heels of 1998 were exemplars of the subtlely arrogant assumption a seasoned team can turn on the juice as needed. That 34-4 group -- led by upperclassmen Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Shammond Williams, Makhtar Ndiaye, and Ademola Okulaja --reached the Final Four before Utah administered a lesson in humility.
Outside expectations play a part in shaping player attitudes, whether through the ratifying message embodied in polls or the influence and interest of classmates, relatives, friends, and others. Players on highly-regarded squads resolutely speak of holding the world and its attentions at arm’s length, but rarely succeed.
This past summer, Ginyard looked back almost nostalgically to his freshman year, when the expectations were at the opposite end of the spectrum from their current fever pitch. “We didn’t have a care in the world, just went out there and played basketball,” he said of the 2006 unit Williams also recalls with special fondness. “Nobody cared what we did and nobody expected us to do anything, so it was a lot easier for the players to not have to strain their minds so hard to block everything else out.”
-- Players change. Or don’t.
Most coaches meet with their players following the season to outline paths to individual improvement. Presumably, heights yet to scale and skills yet to be mastered were part of Williams’ conversations last spring with the four UNC standouts weighing whether to depart early to start their pro careers.
Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ty Lawson decided to stay. Hansbrough has unveiled a long-range jumper, making him a better-rounded player but at the expense of moving away from the basket, where he serves Carolina best. Green has thrived, performing as a starter in Ginyard’s absence.
Ellington has not improved significantly except as a ballhandler. He is an average defender and has seen his scoring and shooting accuracy decline. Lawson is unparalleled at driving tempo as a playmaker, but remains inconsistent and tends to falter under pressure.
-- Finally, there are intangibles to consider. Despite the best intentions and the most vociferous coaching, personalities and aspirations do not always mesh. Some essential quality – call it chemistry, tough-mindedness, focus, universal commitment -- may be lacking in this group. Perhaps we’ve seen it already, a fatal flaw exposed in a collapse against Georgetown in the 2007 Elite Eight and in a more profound collapse against Kansas in the 2008 Final Four.
