More to matchups than meets the eye
Feb 10, 2009
Individual matchups are often key to figuring who’s likeliest to win when teams meet. That’s certainly true of North Carolina’s visit to Duke on Wednesday night in this year’s first reenactment of what’s arguably the most enduringly excellent rivalry in American sports.
But matchups extend beyond players. Among the best features of this series are the men manipulating the individual matchups, Hall of Fame coaches Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams.
From 1981 through 1997 the Tar Heels were directed by Williams’ mentor, Dean Smith, another Hall of Famer. Smith was one for playing to his team’s strengths -- some would say to the point of stubbornness – and essentially dared an opponent to beat North Carolina at what it did best. “Don’t take what the other team gives you,” Smith said in 1994. “They want you to lose, so why should you do what they want you to do?”
The abandonment of that strategic principle led to one of the most striking Duke victories in the history of the rivalry, launching a 10-game winning streak that culminated in Krzyzewski’s third national championship.
Duke had just been defeated at home by Maryland, in the process losing center Carlos Boozer to a broken right foot. Scrambling to adjust on the fly, the Devils went to a small lineup as they ventured to Chapel Hill for the final game of the 2001 regular season.
UNC coach Matt Doherty had relied most of the year on a larger, more ponderous alignment that ultimately earned 26 wins. But against Duke, Carolina blinked after essentially playing to a draw in the first half. Doherty went to a smaller alignment in the final 20 minutes, attempting to match the visitors’ quickness and speed instead of sticking with what had worked previously.
Allowing Krzyzewski to dictate the terms of engagement was a shocking development in a building named after Smith, and led to a 95-81 Duke victory.
Duke made 14 of 38 shots from 3-point range (36.8 percent) in that 2001 win. By contrast, when the 2009 Blue Devils took 39 threes in last weekend’s overtime victory against Miami, the profligacy of its perimeter shooting set tongues wagging.
The current squad is the least-accurate from 3-point range of Krzyzewski’s tenure, making 33.6 percent in 23 games. The accuracy was 30.8 percent against the Hurricanes’ matchup zone. The program's previous season low from the bonusphere was set by the 2002 Dukies, who converted 36.3 percent.
Duke’s shot selection against the Canes left much to be desired; veterans uncharacteristically threw up long jumpers early in the shot clock and with insufficient board coverage. Four Devils attempted at least seven 3-pointers against Miami, but only Greg Paulus converted at a breakeven rate, making 4 of 12. The senior’s aggressiveness, also evidenced by three steals, likely means Paulus will keep the starter’s berth he enjoyed for the second time this year.
How No. 6 Duke handles its point chores, particularly on defense, could prove decisive against No. 3 North Carolina, winner of seven straight.
Few guards anywhere can keep pace with UNC’s Ty Lawson when he is fully engaged. At such times, Lawson is the Heels’ most unique weapon. In the team’s 21 wins he had 4.4 assists for every turnover; mistake-free ballhandling is the statistical area most stressed by Williams in assessing a point guard. “Some things are awfully impressive,” the coach said, scanning a boxscore after last weekend’s lackluster win over Virginia. “(I’m) looking at Ty Lawson with nine assists and zero turnovers.”
In Carolina’s two losses, against Boston College and Wake Forest, Lawson had nine assists and eight turnovers.
Following the Virginia victory, Lawson was appropriately appreciative, and diplomatically bland, regarding the visit to Cameron Indoor Stadium. “It’s just fun going over there and playing,” the junior said. “The fans, they’ve got a lot of things to say. You see funny posters. It’s a joy. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime type thing.”
Actually, this is Lawson’s third visit to Cameron, and probably his last. He was less than stellar in two previous appearances, committing five turnovers against seven assists. Still, the Heels triumphed both times, running their winning streak at Duke to three games. Whether the current crew can make it four in a row without a strong performance from Lawson is doubtful, even with Duke at a pronounced disadvantage inside.
The Blue Devils surely will focus on shortcircuiting UNC’s devastating fast break, disrupting pass lanes, and limiting Lawson’s penetration in halfcourt. Checking Lawson is apt to fall to a varying crew. Paulus may try from time to time, but isn’t the optimal choice. Memory is fresh of Miami’s Jack McClinton, who poured in 34 points in defeat, hesitating barely an instant before exploiting the senior for an easy basket.
Guarding Lawson is apt to fall first and foremost to Jon Scheyer, struggling at shooting guard but effective defensively against the likes of Davidson’s Stephen Curry and Wake’s Jeff Teague. David McClure, the ACC's most versatile defender, will surely assist with those chores.
Nolan Smith, Duke’s erstwhile starter at point, has ably pressured ballhandlers too. More recently, though, he played poorly in a rout at Clemson and sparingly against Miami. Smith said he is “just battling injuries,” including back spasms. A healthy, confident Smith lends crucial athleticism to Duke’s containment strategy.
Defense, after all, remains the strength of Krzyzewski’s 13th straight 20-win team. Talk about matchups – uptempo UNC leads the conference in scoring (92.3 points per game, fourth-best in ACC history) while Duke leads in scoring defense (61.0, tops in the ACC since 1997 and best under Krzyzewski).
The Blue Devils struggled defensively in their past two games, but the Tar Heels have struggled all year to assert themselves with equal vigor at both ends of the floor. UNC is 11th in the conference in scoring defense. “They can’t win a national championship playing defense like that,” an ACC coach said after the Heels beat his team. Duke can score, ranking third in the league in point production.
How these matchups play out will determine the ACC leader with the regular-season race already headed into the home stretch. Not to mention whetting our appetites for the March 8 rematch at Chapel Hill.
