Duke on upset alert
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8880306/duke-blue-devils-kansas-jayhawks-upset-alert-plus-more-picks-college-basketballMaryland Terrapins at Duke Blue Devils
Projected point spread: Duke -12 to -14
The knee- reaction among some bettors is to look to support Duke off a loss. However, a hard look at the data shows that the Blue Devils have been long-term money losers against the spread following an ACC defeat over the past 15 years. Four late free throws got Duke backers the money following their last loss in a 16-point win over Georgia Tech as 15-point favorite.
But the Blue Devils' 27-point blowout loss earlier this week was different from their competitive defeat at the hands of N.C. State -- it was a confidence shaker. Seth Curry, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton combined to shoot 1-of-29 from the floor against Miami's stout defense, and Maryland ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive field goal percentage.
The Terps' Alex Len can bang with Mason Plumlee in the paint, and the Terps' slow pace could give the Blue Devils fits. I certainly don't see Duke losing this game, but Mark Turgeon's squad hasn't lost by more than 10 points against anybody all season. That makes them a clear choice as double-digit dogs.
The ATS pick: Take Maryland
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