Stats for discussion

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  • hovis Nov 23, 11:35 a.m.
    All Star

    Maybe it's because I'm mostly stupid, but I don't quite get what you're trying to say here.
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    — Posted by cooperitis

    I am not trying to really encourage you to take away anything positive or negative from these stats. My comment concerning Ruffin was solely based on that these stats suggest that as you said he beat who he should have and list the others. The only reason that I would take a slightly positive view from this is that ecu would not logically be 108 now thus have improved, to what degree could be certainly argued.

    Just worked up the numbers and found them interesting for preseason stats. If you kind of count the s.miss thing as an anomaly they are fairly accurate with the only exception being the 108 by ECU.

    You are right about how these numbers work vs Sagarin. These are usually used as the likelyhood of one team versus another ignoring strength of schedule and w/l predictions. For that reason I find them a little more telling. Take Kentucky in basketball right now for example. The three ranking is an end of the season ranking. They expect them to be the third best team...in March. If you beat them in March you may beat the 3rd ranked team but right now in the type of above rankings they would be 30th or so.

  • cooperitis Nov 23, 11:15 a.m.
    Bench Warmer

    Maybe it's because I'm mostly stupid, but I don't quite get what you're trying to say here.

    Preseason stats (and polls for that matter)don't actually mean that much. They are based upon "expectations" going off of past experience and body of work with leftover talent. I would be more interested in the current Sagarin rankings.

    Those stats mainly tell me that ECU has beaten the expected sorry teams and have lost to the good expected teams. But who could have predicted that So Miss (70) would not have won a game. That's why I feel that current stats would show a more true refection of football program. The only good thing I see from those stats is that ECU has done much better than the preseason expectations. I will give it that.

  • hovis Nov 23, 10:38 a.m.
    All Star

    Here is a summary of the preseason rankings compared to wins. Now it should be noted that part of the low ecu ranking came from doubts at running back and at the time these numbers were released v.cooper was not on the roster. This would likely have increased the ranking somewhat. These rankings are meant to reflect preseason talent and one teams likelyhood of beating another team more than schedule win ability or anything else.

    ECU-108 th

    Teams beaten:Tulane(107), UAB(114), Memphis(119), Utep(111), S.Miss(70), Houston(67).

    Cumulative wins score:211-125

    Teams lost to:UCF(38), unc(45), s.Car(11), navy(80).

    Cumulative score:64-171

    Marshall-64th

    Just for discussion, I think this reflects better on old Ruff than most would give him credit for.

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