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NFL

NFL Parity and 20-Point Blowouts


Courtesy of Jim Feist


For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, "On any given Sunday any team can beat another." The last few years it seems as though parity has disappeared from the NFL. The Broncos this season and last are dominating, the 2008 Saints and Colts started a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS and the 2007 Patriots had a remarkable 16-0 regular season.

A close look, however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Broncos have had a pair of 7-point wins and lost at Seattle, 26-20. Last year the Packers may have started 8-0, but they had a 5 point win over Minnesota, gave up 38 points in a close win over San Diego, along with 7 and 8 points wins over Carolina and New Orleans. In 2008 four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less, while the 2007 Patriots were just as lucky as they were good - until the Super Bowl!

What New England did in 2007 was unique, but let's not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8 ATS.

Last season, parity really roared its head. The Chiefs and Chargers played much better than expected, making the playoffs, the Steelers and Ravens both finished 8-8. In the NFC the Cardinals, Panthers and Eagles were huge surprises, while the NFC North was won by Green Bay going just 8-7-1! The Bears (8-8) and Lions (7-9) finished just behind.

This year, the Cowboys, Lions, Cardinals, Bills and Browns have defied most prognosticators with consistently strong play in many areas, plenty of wins and covers.

Would you believe just over a year ago the Jets were expected to be a strong team? Seems like 100 years ago after their horrid start to 2014. The Cowboys were expected to roll over the rival Redskins on Monday night a few weeks ago as 10-point chalk, but ended up losing the game. The same for Seattle on Monday night against the Rams, who followed that big upset by getting smoked by the Chiefs, 34-7.

The Falcons and Saints continue to have defensive troubles, particularly in the secondary, while the Jets have already suffered through a 7-game skid with no offense. Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. The Colts completely fell apart when Peyton Manning was on the shelf with a neck injury. This season offensive line injuries have been the biggest factor, with problems in Carolina, New England in September, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and both the NY Jets and Giants.

There's an old wagering adage about going against pro football teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That's not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.

Remember how bad the Chiefs started in 2011? Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7 and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover.

Before that the Jaguars got routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.

It might not seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, You rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.

For more tips and sports betting information, check out Jim Feist TV


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Final
CREI 65
NCCU 45
 
Final
NCSU 68
SFLA 65
Final
MIA 94
CHA 93
Final
MIA 94
CHA 93
Final
MEM 107
LAC 91
Final
BOS 88
POR 94
Final
OKC 86
GSW 91
1st
LAL 11
DEN 11
 
Final
GMAS 60
COC 61
Final
FSU 69
UMASS 75
Final
SHSU 53
WOFF 64
Final
UNCG 67
YOUNG 76
Final
CMICH 75
ARKPB 43
 
Final
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SILL 67
Final
MORE 46
AMER 51
Final
CORN 59
DREX 61
Final
CCST 60
COOK 65
Final
ARKLR 94
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Final
LEH 44
CLMB 54
 
Final
USB 89
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Final
NMU 51
TEXAM 64
Final
STLU 56
TAMCC 62
 
Final
FAIR 80
SD 72
Final
EMICH 79
LONG 48
Final
ND 74
PROV 75
Final
RAD 88
CATAWBA 52
 
Final
DEN 80
COPST 54
 
Final
UAB 58
JST 50
 
Final
WICHS 105
NWM 57
Final
OKLA 90
NWST 68
Final
KSU 59
YALE 66
Final
CREI 65
NCCU 45
 
Final
NCSU 68
SFLA 65
Final
UCR 102
STKAT 49
 
Final
PSU 63
USC 61
Final
HC 101
NICHOLSCOL 70
 
Final
BC 53
DAY 65
Final
MON 75
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Final
HOF 93
WAGN 71
 
Final
CIN 54
EILL 49
Final
UGA 74
FATL 61
Final
BRAD 58
NCAT 50
 
Final
LATU 76
PBY 48
Final
RUTG 76
Terriers 73
 
Final
SAMF 64
UMKC 55
Final
NAVY 70
BING 68
Final
SHU 85
GWEBB 67
Final
UNT 58
IONA 78
Final
KENT 86
MNTST 28
Final
FORD 57
MLOWELL 64
 
Final
UCF 76
USCU 69
 
Final
SCAR 63
AKR 68
Final
WVU 78
UCONN 68
Final
CALST 70
DEL 52
 
Final
HOW 78
HOOD 51
 
Final
OSU 106
SHU 48
Final
VANDY 78
TENST 46
Final
NE 65
MAN 51
 
2nd
COLST 71
MERC 60
 
2nd
MISS 67
NARZ 61
 
2nd
WASH 66
PAC 57
 
Final
LMU 82
SDCHR 60
 
1st
CHAR 31
MIAMI 38
 
1st
GAELS 35
UCI 33
 
1st
ILLST 26
ODU 12
 
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UCLA
LBSU
10:30pm Tonight
SEAT
MONT
 
Final
WIN 2
STL 4
Final
NYR 5
MON 0
2nd Intermission
ANA 2
ARI 0
 
1st
VAN 0
CHI 0
 
Final
HOU 13
CIN 22
Final
ATL 24
CLE 26
Final
NEP 34
DET 9
Final
MIN 21
GBP 24
Final
IND 23
JAC 3
Final
CHI 21
TAM 13
Final
PHI 43
TEN 24
Final
SEA 19
ARI 3
Final
SDC 27
STL 24
Final
DEN 39
MIA 36
Final
SFX 17
WAS 13
2nd
NYG 21
DAL 10