ACC football: out of sight, out of mind
Oct 2, 2008
The National Championship hunt is wide open as the middle of the season is quickly approaching. We've already had three No. 1 teams and a flurry of upsets within the top five. Nothing seems to be for sure as college football's unpredictability is at an all-time high. However, I'd bet the farm that the ACC is the only league among the BCS conferences that won't have a school in the national championship discussion from here to the finish line. With the first BCS poll still a couple of weeks away from being released, here's how I see things:
The most recent AP poll has 19 schools ahead of the highest rated ACC team, Virginia Tech. That includes two teams from the mighty Mountain West Conference. BYU is No. 8 and Utah is ranked 15th. The Cougars and Utes play each other during the last week of the season. If they are both undefeated, and that's still a big if, the BCS folks will be squirming. How will it look to have a non-BCS league have a school play for a BCS National Championship? Regardless of what happens from here on out, I seriously doubt either team will finish the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 based on the brutality of what other schools in more difficult conferences have to face.
For instance, the Big-12 currently has four teams in the top-seven. Oklahoma is No. 1, but No. 4 Missouri, No. 5 Texas, and No. 7 Texas Tech are hot on the Sooners heels in the polls. The good news is these four teams will be allowed to separate themselves from each other on the field. Texas gets its shot at OU on Oct. 11. The Red Raiders play the Longhorns to start November and they get the Sooners in late-November. Missouri and Texas meet in Austin on Oct. 18. Plus, the Tigers could play the Longhorns, Red Raiders, or Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game. It's a mini-play-off of sorts to see who might come out of the Big 12 to play for a National Championship. Barring any unforseen upsets, as many as five Big-12 games could have an impact on the National Championship picture before the end of the year.
Speaking of mini-play-offs, five of the top-13 teams in America come from out of the SEC. No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 LSU, No. 11 Georgia, No. 12 Florida, and No. 13 Auburn are all very much alive for the SEC and/or National Championship. The fun begins on Oct. 11 when Florida and LSU play in Gainesville. Two weeks later, LSU hosts Georgia. The Bulldogs and Gators play the following week in Jacksonville. The week after that Alabama travels to LSU. Then Auburn will play Georgia and Alabama in its final two games. After the regular season mayhem is complete, there's the SEC Championship Game. Whoever makes it out of this snake pit with fewer than two losses is worthy of a National Championship appearance.
The Pac-10 has only one team currently ranked in the top-ten. However, No. 9 USC should move up based on who falls in front of them. USC has the players, and maybe more importantly the schedule, to get them back in the discussion. Another loss for the Trojans and you can eliminate them from the National Title race.
Any loss by No. 10 South Florida is enough to keep them from playing for a National Championship. Yet, even if they go undefeated, is a team with that schedule worthy of playing for a National Title? USF doesn't control how good or bad their opponents are. However, as difficult as it is to go undefeated, I find it equally difficult to put USF ahead of a potential one-loss SEC or Big-12 team. Nevertheless, the Bulls will probably be in the discussion for a while.
The Big-10's hopes have to rest on No. 6 Penn State. I realize No. 14 Ohio State isn't completely out of the picture. But how could the Buckeyes get any benefit of the doubt when they've already been blown out by USC on a national stage. And even though it shouldn't have any bearing on the 2008 season, the way 2006 and 2007 ended for Ohio St. will be lingering in the mind of pollsters. The Nittany Lions need to win in Columbus at the end of the month for the Big 10 have a team that the rest of the country takes seriously.
So where does the ACC fit into all of this? Exactly nowhere. The league doesn't have a single meaningful game that will affect the national landscape.
The Wake Forest-Clemson game next week is big for the Atlantic Division. But the Deacons and Tigers are dreaming if they think they have any shot to get anything other than the ACC's automatic BCS berth. A game that was once as big as it got, Florida State and Miami, is going on this weekend with little to no fanfare. Neither team is ranked and the loser has virtually no shot at winning its division and playing for the ACC Title in Tampa.
The ACC can only be a spoiler in the race to the National Championship. Florida State could knock Florida out of the picture on Nov. 29. That's if the Gators can make it past LSU, Georgia, and any other potential obstacles. Georgia Tech might be able to keep Georgia from winning its first title since 1980, too. However, LSU, Florida, and Auburn could beat them to it. Other than that, the ACC will be absent from the national championship picture for the rest of the season. That was fast. I feel like the season just started.
