Number one seed slipping away
Feb 5, 2009
Just a week or two ago it appeared the ACC was a lock to get at least one number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, and possibly two or three. But last night’s one-sided losses by Wake Forest and Duke cast doubt about those two teams as number ones, and may even raise questions about the strength of the very top of the league as a whole. I could even make the argument that North Carolina did not look like a number one seed in its game Tuesday, although it defeated Maryland 108-91.
Wake Forest looks least like a number one seed at this point. Despite a splashy start with home wins over North Carolina and Duke, the Deacons have fallen into the same pattern that plagued them last season. The visiting court and the half court give them trouble. Wake Forest might well win an up tempo game in Joel Coliseum with Connecticut or Pittsburgh, two clubs that do appear destined for number one seeds. But until the Deacons prove that they can go to a place like Miami or Georgia Tech, and score points without benefit of their outstanding transition game, their NCAA stock will continue to fall.
Duke, with its rock-solid defense, looked like a strong bet for a number one seed following its dominating wins over Maryland and Virginia. The Blue Devils’ last second loss to Wake Forest presumably would not result in much of a markdown with the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. There may not be a single team that beats Wake at the Joel this year. But Duke’s 27 point loss at Clemson could change everything. It gives Duke a total of three losses-it’s doubtful any number one seeds this season will have more than four. And this was a non-competitive loss. Granted, Clemson is a strong team, especially on its home court, and could be a number two seed. But last night’s blowout re-opens the scrutiny about Duke’s offense. Do the Blue Devils have enough offensive firepower at all five positions to overcome a really great defense? Can Duke win out merely by outworking opponents on the defensive end and the backboard?
North Carolina has just the opposite problem. The Tar Heels seem to have all the answers on offense. They ran and shot threes in outscoring Maryland. They showed an improved halfcourt game against NC State and Florida State, other than the fact that they couldn’t get the ball to Tyler Hansbrough against FSU. But defense is another story. The Tar Heels allowed mediocre Maryland to shoot 48% and score 91 points Tuesday night. They were beaten down the floor on four consecutive possessions-usually after their own made baskets. Coach Roy Williams called time out, and was so angry about his team’s defensive play, he chose not to speak. Additionally, Carolina must now be concerned about its bench, now that Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves are lost for the season.
This week’s games provide only a snapshot of the league’s three best teams during one night at the mid-point of the grueling ACC campaign. Wake, Duke, and UNC still have time to play their way into number one seeds, but Wake and Duke must still face resurgent Boston College, Wake must play Clemson again, and Duke and UNC must play each other twice. Throw in the occasional road upset that transpires in this incredibly competitive league, plus the tournament, and one has a hard time envisioning any team finishing with just four losses. Unless the Big East teams start knocking off the top dogs in that league (at this point Louisville and Marquette also have a chance at number one seeds, along with UConn and Pitt), or unless Oklahoma suddenly starts losing in the less competitive Big 12, the ACC may not have a number one seed in Greensboro. That event seemed remote-until the stunning setbacks of February 4.
