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Barry Jacobs' Preview: ACC Tournament Should Be Competitive

By Barry Jacobs

Mar 6, 2007

The buzz begins before the ACC regular season ends, before teams scatter to the winds, many in search of NCAA glory. One last neighborhood get-together remains to be savored.

Well, “neighborhood” may be stretching the point this year, since the men’s ACC Tournament will be played starting Thursday at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa. Florida is hardly basketball country. Still, with no clear favorite and more contenders than a presidential race devoid of an incumbent, the 54th edition of the ACC’s signature event should provide a suitable finish to a league season notable for its parity and unpredictability.

This was supposed to be a year in which talent-laden North Carolina dominated. Instead the race grew increasingly frenzied and jumbled. Teams with veteran guards, notably Virginia and Virginia Tech, exceeded all expectations, as did a Maryland squad written off before it played a game. Meanwhile teams, such as Boston College and Duke picked to finish near the top, faded down the stretch.

Given the regular season run-up, the ACC Tournament figures to fit an increasingly competitive pattern.

For years, despite our willingness to believe otherwise, the league tournament followed a predictable path. Higher seeds usually won, early round games were seldom close, and upstarts notching a victory tended to flare out quickly. But that routine was notably disrupted last year.

Bottom-seed Wake Forest inaugurated a new 11-game format by winning twice to reach the semifinals. Overall, five of 11 games in 2006 were decided by four or fewer points, and even Duke’s 12-point victory over Wake required a rally from a halftime deficit. The past few years, even when matters went according to form, it was fun getting there.

Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils reached the finals every season since 1999, an unprecedented run that should end this weekend. Duke came away with seven of the last eight titles, yet competition was brisk along the way. More than two-thirds of the semifinals since ‘99 (11 of 16) were decided by five points or less, in overtime, or after one team rallied after trailing at halftime.

The last four finals were similarly close. Count on this year’s tournament to yield more of the same.

Rarely has the ACC entered its climactic weekend with so many strong teams, a characteristic that eludes voters in the national polls even as it is overwhelmingly manifest in power ratings. “I think it’s by far the best since I’ve been here,” Roy Williams, finishing his fourth year as North Carolina’s head coach, said of the ACC.

Seven ACC squads won at least 20 games during the ’07 regular season, with two more winning 19. Seven managed breakeven records or better in league play – North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Duke. Florida State and Clemson came close.

History almost guarantees NCAA berths to breakeven or better ACC squads: Since 1980, all but eight of 127 teams with that many ACC wins got NCAA bids.

Three of the exceptions came in 2005 and 2006, setting ACC coaches howling for better representation. But it’s not talk that counts. ACC teams proved their case on the court in 2007, which wasn’t true in the immediate aftermath of the league’s most recent expansion for football purposes. The consecutive snubs doubtless reflected uneven ACC competition caused by elimination of round-robin play during the regular season, weak non-league schedules, a leveling of talent, and animosity engendered by poaching three teams from the Big East.

This year, the ACC is the top-rated conference and most squads have impressive nonconference wins. Within the league, no result was guaranteed. Even among the also-rans, Miami won at Maryland and downed Virginia; N.C. State swept Virginia Tech and beat UNC; and Wake knocked off Georgia Tech, Clemson and a Virginia club poised to wrap up sole possession of first place.

“Almost every team, even the good ones, are flawed,” UVa coach Dave Leitao said following the Wake loss. “We call them upsets, but they’re really not. When we play together and guys play like they’re supposed to, we’re tough to beat. When we don’t, we’re easy to beat.”

The same could be said for most any of the league’s upper echelon.

With so many teams bunched at the top, NCAA seedings can be significantly enhanced by surviving deep into the ACC Tournament. Several skidding teams must work out kinks that threaten their NCAA viability, particularly Boston College, Duke and Virginia Tech. Clemson, FSU and to a lesser extent Georgia Tech remain awash in bubble babble, and can assure NCAA inclusion with impressive showings.

Matters are so unsettled, the finals may lack an ACC member from North Carolina for only the second time ever. The first came at Charlotte in 1990, when Georgia Tech beat Virginia in Charlotte in 1990. Meanwhile, without the round-robin and its balanced, home-and-home schedule, the ACC Tournament may have more legitimacy than at any time in its history in determining a true league champion.

Here’s how matters stand as the tournament opens outside North Carolina for the second time in three years, plunked into an arena in football-crazy Florida for the first and hopefully last time ever:

Opening Round
Thursday, noon #8 Clemson (21-9, 7-9) vs. #9 Florida State (19-11, 7-9)
The tournament opener carries an air of desperation, as both Clemson and Florida State must win to keep alive their NCAA prospects. Of course, survival gains the victor a Friday meeting with top-seed North Carolina, which beat each the single time they played during the regular season. The prospect of a return engagement is not all that daunting. The Tar Heels have been erratic of late, and are vulnerable.

Past performance yields a slight edge to Clemson on Thursday -- FSU is the only ACC opponent swept home-and-home by the Tigers this season.

Few ACC teams ever get off to a better start than Clemson, which matched a school record by opening the season with 17 consecutive wins. And few teams crashed so dramatically, as the Tigers dropped nine of their next 11 games before ending the year with consecutive wins.

“It got a little tight there,” coach Oliver Purnell said in a bit of an understatement. Purnell saw the skid as comprised of discrete losing streaks – two games here, three games there, four games after that. “You’ve got to keep looking at it that way,” he said. “Look around the league. Everybody’s going through it.”

Perhaps, but not like Clemson. Keying the Tigers’ tailspin has been execrable foul shooting – at .585 the worst in the history of the conference. Over the past three years Purnell’s squads hit a cumulative 59.8 percent of their free throws, fecklessness that could well prove fatal against Florida State, the ACC’s best foul shooting team in 2007 (.767) and among the top 10 in conference history.

FSU possesses the league’s top scorer (20.1-point average) in explosive senior Al Thornton. The versatile forward dropped 45 points on Miami in an overtime win the other day, almost single-handedly keeping alive the NCAA hopes of a squad snubbed in 2006 despite a 9-7 ACC record. (Not since N.C. State’s Rodney Monroe scored 48 in 1991 has an ACC player produced more points in a game.)

Thornton insists he returned this year to take Florida State to the NCAAs after an eight-year absence. He did not count on the preseason loss of several big men, leaving FSU vulnerable inside, nor on a broken hand suffered by offensive-minded playmaker Toney Douglas (13.1 points) in a Feb. 7 defeat at Clemson.

Five straight losses followed Douglas’ injury. He returned for the win over Miami, giving FSU a needed boost as it makes its case for NCAA inclusion. Clemson likewise beat Miami, then edged Virginia Tech to end the regular season on a positive note.

The Tigers rely heavily on a pressing defense spearheaded by 6-9 junior James Mays, an under-appreciated defender, and the 3-point shooting of guard K.C. Rivers (.403), the team’s top scorer. Luck may also be turning toward the Tigers after all these years. Clemson, the only original conference member that’s has never won an ACC Tournament, beat the Hokies by a point at Blacksburg despite 9-for-19 free throw shooting.

Next up for the winner is North Carolina, plagued lately by -- take your pick -- wavering concentration or lack of toughness, cohesiveness, defense, confidence. Getting up for an opponent like Duke is neither a problem nor a solution; playing with passion every game is a particular challenge for UNC.

“For us to lose five conference games is kind of shocking to me,” Tar Heel sophomore Danny Green said.

Green cited a number of factors, including the young team’s predictable tendency to “fall back on the talent.”

“Everybody expects us to win. We expect to win,” he said. “We figure we have so much talent, we can beat anybody.”

Forging a team is another matter. Quietly, coach Roy Williams has pared his playing rotation a bit in conference play. Eight players get 13 or more minutes per game, about the same as Maryland.

Freshmen Brandan Wright and Ty Lawson continue to emerge as front-rank performers. Inconsistent Reyshawn Terry is trying to shoulder a senior’s leadership role. Wings Green and Wayne Ellington are threats inside and out. Marcus Ginyard, a strong defender of similar size, is making better decisions and enough points to stay on the court. When Duke closed within 56-53 with 11:50 remaining on Sunday, Ginyard’s 3-pointer doubled the Heels’ margin as they pulled away.

Central to UNC’s success stands Hansbrough, a bullish big man who shouldn’t miss any playing time due to the broken nose incurred against Duke. Hansbrough, the top Tar Heel in scoring (18.8) and rebounding (8.0), is such a difficult matchup other teams leave themselves vulnerable in order to stop him.

Even with the attention, Hansbrough operates so well inside, and gets to the foul line so often as a result, he will finish among the ACC’s all-time leaders in free throw attempts in a season (259 and counting).

Thursday, 2 p.m. #5 Maryland (24-7, 10-6) vs. # 12 Miami (11-19, 4-12)
Remarkably, last-place Miami won its only meeting with Maryland this season, and at College Park to boot. But that was two months ago. Don’t expect a similar result this time.

The Terrapins are the ACC’s hottest club, steaming into the tournament on a seven-game winning streak. “Momentum is everything in this league,” Clemson’s Purnell noted. That said, if any team in the field is capable of winning four games in four days – an unlikely feat achieved just last week by Elizabeth City State in the CIAA tournament – it is Maryland.

The athletic Terps use eight players. They have an excellent combination of experience, with four upperclass starters, and youth, led by daring freshman playmaker Greivis Vasquez (144 assists, fifth in the ACC).

Senior guard Darryl (D.J.) Strawberry, always a strong defender, has emerged as a leader and scorer, pacing the team with 15.2 points. Senior Mike Jones, a 43.4 percent shooter from 3-point range, is especially dangerous if he hits a few jumpers early, as he showed in scoring 25 points at Duke last week.

An adept passing unit, even in halfcourt, the Terps thrive in open-court situations. Defensively, they’re best in the league at suppressing opponents’ field goal and 3-point accuracy, keyed by rejecting nearly seven shots per game, also tops in the ACC. Senior center Ekene Ibekwe leads the ACC in blocks, and is fourth in rebound average.

In short, this has emerged as Gary Williams’ best team since 2002, when Maryland won the NCAA title.

“We’re jelling a little bit,” admits Williams, whom many critics had written off as a sated has-been.

Miami, meanwhile, was picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC, then lost most of its best frontcourt players to injury. For the third straight year, the Canes were forced to rely heavily on a perimeter attack, to inadequate effect. Led by guards Jack McClinton (16.8 points, ninth in the ACC), Anthony Harris and Denis Clemente, Miami has not won two games in a row since early December.

But the Canes fight on, losing their two most recent games in overtime against Clemson and FSU. “These guys have not quit,” coach Frank Haith said with pride.

Haith hopes for a repeat of last year, when No.5 Florida State came out flat and was upset by 12th-seed Wake Forest.

It’s always possible Maryland will be caught looking ahead to a quarterfinal matchup with Boston College, powered by forward Jared Dudley and fleet playmaker Tyrese Rice. The Eagles are fluttering badly, losing four of their last five games. They won the only meeting with the Terps this season at Boston on Dec. 10, so there’s a revenge factor too, if you believe in that stuff.

But this remains the most predictable opening-round game, with mature Maryland pushing ahead.

Thursday, 7 p.m. #7 Duke (22-9, 8-8) vs. #10 N.C. State (15-14, 5-11)
Expansion has dealt a blow to this venerable series. Duke and N.C. State have not played home-and-home since 2003. This year’s meeting was at Raleigh, where Duke won handily.

The Blue Devils were confident and successful back then, en route to an 18-3 start predicated on superior team defense. To date, they have allowed 60.7 points per game, best in the league since 1997.

However, as the ACC season unfolded the Devils’ liabilities were increasingly exposed. They finished the regular season with six defeats in their last 10 games, including a four-game losing streak unmatched at Durham since 1996. Coach Mike Krzyzewski insists his squad is improving, but that may not be enough to stave off an opening-round upset. Other coaches wondered why Krzyzewski wasn’t considered for ACC coach of the year after winning 20 games with his current roster.

Duke has a minimal inside game and unremarkable athleticism. Its bench is suspect, its playmaking unsteady. Big man Josh McRoberts, a superior passer, rebounder and defender, appears uncomfortable maneuvering to shoot. Wing David McClure, another good defender, is even more shot-averse. This is Coach K’s worst foul shooting team in five years. No wonder the Devils are last in the ACC in scoring (69.9).

Making matters worse, Duke enters its ACC Tournament opener without freshman wing Gerald Henderson, its most creative offensive player. Henderson was suspended for one game after clobbering UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough in the final seconds of a decisive Duke defeat at Chapel Hill. A flagrant foul requires ejection; a flagrant foul ruled to be a “combative and confrontational action” (fighting), as Henderson’s was, automatically produces a one-game suspension.

All of which plays into the hands of an N.C. State team that has the inside game and shooting touch to give Duke fits.

“That was the one team we wanted no part of,” an ACC head coach said of the Wolfpack. “They can shoot the ball. They have a puncher’s chance.”

Sidney Lowe’s club was outshot and outrebounded by Duke at Raleigh in mid-January, and committed 20 turnovers compared to seven assists. But that was without playmaker Engin Atsur, sidelined due to a hamstring injury.

Atsur is back, helping Lowe’s first college team remain competitive despite a glaring lack of ACC-caliber depth. The squad met most reasonable expectations, remaining competitive, cohesive and hard-working.

Sneaking a tournament victory would guarantee a non-losing record. Emulating Herb Sendek’s first team, which won three times to reach the ’97 finals, is far less likely.

Forward Brandon Costner – improbably listed as a freshman yet also as one of the league’s most improved players – ranks among ACC leaders in scoring and rebounding. (Costner played 69 minutes in five games in 2006 before gaining a medical redshirt.) He and sophomore Ben McCauley form an imposing, versatile, smart-passing frontcourt duo.

N.C. State shoots well overall from the floor (.486) and foul line (.722), and is dangerous on 3-pointers when the right players (Costner, Atsur, freshman Dennis Horner) take the shot.

Still, the Wolfpack is no colossus, with seven losses in their last eight tries. They’re last in the league in rebound and turnover margin; junior Gavin Grant is tied for the school’s modern single-season turnover record with 119, most in the ACC.

Another factor working against the Pack: Krzyzewski is masterful at goading teams toward championships, and is not about to relinquish ACC bragging rights without a fight. Figuratively speaking.

The Duke-N.C. State winner advances to a quarterfinal against No.2 Virginia, a collection of odd parts powered by a pair of terrific upperclass guards, Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. The Cavaliers faced Duke and N.C. State once each, and beat both at Charlottesville. But UVa lost recently to lowly Miami and Wake Forest, and could be vulnerable to a motivated opponent on Friday.

Thursday, 9 p.m. #6 Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8) vs. #11 Wake Forest (14-15, 5-11)
Other than Maryland, Georgia Tech is the hottest team in the ACC, with seven wins in its last nine games. The two most recent victims were North Carolina and Boston College.

This turnabout comes from a team and coach criticized earlier this year by an Atlanta columnist for underachieving, a verdict with which Paul Hewitt generally agreed. “I’ve never been this frustrated with a group in all my life,” the Georgia Tech coach said a few weeks back, criticizing himself as well.

Hewitt never doubted his players’ effort, only their judgment. Given the team’s reliance on Javaris Crittenton, a freshman point guard, and freshman forward Thaddeus Young, befuddling lapses and headlong forays into trouble were inevitable.

Lately, Crittenton has clicked, and so have the Yellow Jackets. “He’s our guy,” Hewitt said of the team leader in scoring (14.5) and assists (5.7 per game, second in the ACC). “Everybody gears everything to stop him.” Crittenton hit double figures in assists and points in the wins over UNC and BC. Young is likewise coming on, and is second on the team in scoring and rebounds.

Georgia Tech and Wake Forest split their season series, with each winning on its home court. That dichotomy is nothing unusual for the Jackets, who were 1-8 on the road this season. Their stretch-drive winning streak came almost exclusively at home.

So Hewitt will try to convince his squad that Tampa is really a home away from home, while Wake’s Skip Prosser regales his freshman-laden squad with tales of twin upsets by the Demon Deacons in the ’06 ACC Tournament.

The Deacs show signs of rounding into a solid unit, winning three of their last five games and five of their last nine. Senior big man Kyle Visser, accorded ample opportunity, has prospered. The only double-figure scorer on the team (16.9), Visser gets help inside from freshman Jamie Skeen.

Wake is hurt by the league’s worst ratio of assists to turnovers -- freshman playmaker Ish Smith leads the ACC in assists (5.9 per game), though like Crittenton remains exquisitely erratic in his decisionmaking. The youth-laden Deacons also are among the league’s least-accurate shooters from floor and line.

Assuming Georgia Tech maintains its poise and focus, it should handle the Deacs, then advance to play Virginia Tech, a team an opposing ACC coach insisted “doesn’t try every night.”

Then again, this is a Hokie squad that faced worse adversity last season, suffering personal and athletic heartaches. Virginia Tech boasts a superior backcourt in seniors Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon, and large, athletic wings in Deron Washington and A.D. Vassallo. This is a veteran unit that started 16-5, swept North Carolina and defeated Duke on its home court as well.

For the sake of making a prediction, expect North Carolina and Maryland to win their Friday games, advancing to Saturday’s first semi-final at 1:30 p.m. In the other bracket, look for Virginia and Virginia Tech in the 3:30 p.m. semi-final, a rare battle of seasoned backcourts.

Maryland and Virginia Tech will advance, with the Terps winning their second ACC Tournament in four years.