WRAL Sports Fan

WRALSportsFan

Preview: #7 Duke vs. #10 N.C. State

By BARRY JACOBS

Mar 8, 2007

Raleigh, N.C. — Expansion has dealt a blow to this venerable series. Duke and N.C. State have not played home-and-home since 2003. This year’s meeting was at Raleigh, where Duke won handily.

The Blue Devils were confident and successful back then, en route to an 18-3 start predicated on superior team defense. To date, they have allowed 60.7 points per game, best in the league since 1997.

However, as the ACC season unfolded the Devils’ liabilities were increasingly exposed. They finished the regular season with six defeats in their last 10 games, including a four-game losing streak unmatched at Durham since 1996. Coach Mike Krzyzewski insists his squad is improving, but that may not be enough to stave off an opening-round upset. Other coaches wondered why Krzyzewski wasn’t considered for ACC coach of the year after winning 20 games with his current roster.

Duke has a minimal inside game and unremarkable athleticism. Its bench is suspect, its playmaking unsteady. Big man Josh McRoberts, a superior passer, rebounder and defender, appears uncomfortable maneuvering to shoot. Wing David McClure, another good defender, is even more shot-averse. This is Coach K’s worst foul shooting team in five years. No wonder the Devils are last in the ACC in scoring (69.9).

Making matters worse, Duke enters its ACC Tournament opener without freshman wing Gerald Henderson, its most creative offensive player. Henderson was suspended for one game after clobbering UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough in the final seconds of a decisive Duke defeat at Chapel Hill. A flagrant foul requires ejection; a flagrant foul ruled to be a “combative and confrontational action” (fighting), as Henderson’s was, automatically produces a one-game suspension.

All of which plays into the hands of an N.C. State team that has the inside game and shooting touch to give Duke fits.

“That was the one team we wanted no part of,” an ACC head coach said of the Wolfpack. “They can shoot the ball. They have a puncher’s chance.”

Sidney Lowe’s club was outshot and outrebounded by Duke at Raleigh in mid-January, and committed 20 turnovers compared to seven assists. But that was without playmaker Engin Atsur, sidelined due to a hamstring injury.

Atsur is back, helping Lowe’s first college team remain competitive despite a glaring lack of ACC-caliber depth. The squad met most reasonable expectations, remaining competitive, cohesive and hard-working.

Sneaking a tournament victory would guarantee a non-losing record. Emulating Herb Sendek’s first team, which won three times to reach the ’97 finals, is far less likely.

Forward Brandon Costner – improbably listed as a freshman yet also as one of the league’s most improved players – ranks among ACC leaders in scoring and rebounding. (Costner played 69 minutes in five games in 2006 before gaining a medical redshirt.) He and sophomore Ben McCauley form an imposing, versatile, smart-passing frontcourt duo.

N.C. State shoots well overall from the floor (.486) and foul line (.722), and is dangerous on 3-pointers when the right players (Costner, Atsur, freshman Dennis Horner) take the shot.

Still, the Wolfpack is no colossus, with seven losses in their last eight tries. They’re last in the league in rebound and turnover margin; junior Gavin Grant is tied for the school’s modern single-season turnover record with 119, most in the ACC.

Another factor working against the Pack: Krzyzewski is masterful at goading teams toward championships, and is not about to relinquish ACC bragging rights without a fight. Figuratively speaking.

The Duke-N.C. State winner advances to a quarterfinal against No.2 Virginia, a collection of odd parts powered by a pair of terrific upperclass guards, Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. The Cavaliers faced Duke and N.C. State once each, and beat both at Charlottesville. But UVa lost recently to lowly Miami and Wake Forest, and could be vulnerable to a motivated opponent on Friday.