WRAL Sports Fan

WRALSportsFan

Blake Column: Why State Will Win

By J. Mike Blake

Nov 8, 2007

J. Mike Blake, a senior at N.C. State, has covered the Wolfpack for WRAL.com this season.

N.C. State, currently riding a three-game winning streak, will try to end a three-year losing streak to archrival North Carolina on Saturday.

The team is playing its best football of the year, and probably should be the favorites over the Tar Heels.

Were this game played three weeks ago, back when the Wolfpack was 1-5, this story would have been very short:
Why will State win?

Because it’s one of two teams playing. Not too many other reasons could’ve been named really.

But the Miami game proved this team’s resurgence isn’t a fluke. Almost every player has been quoted as saying the team as a whole has finally bought into this coaching staff.

Penalties have been cut down. Finally, the Pack has more scoring drives than turnovers.

And winning only furthers the trust that the players now has in their coaches.

In case being only one of two teams playing isn’t a good enough reason why State will win – we’ve added a few more for you and they are:

Yates will struggle

State’s defense held Boston College’s Matt Ryan to 142 yards passing in the second game of the season. Louisville’s Brian Brohm came into Carter-Finley stadium having thrown for 555 yards in his previous game, but was “held” to 251. Those two will, in all likelihood, be the first two quarterbacks selected in the NFL draft.

And those two are a lot better than T.J. Yates.

Since changing up the secondary in the bye week with three new starters, Tom O’Brien’s team has become even better against the pass. His team is now ranked 18th in the country in pass efficiency defense.

In no game has it been better than against Miami, where Hurricanes quarterback Kirby Freeman went 1-for-14 passing for 84 yards.
Albeit, Yates is better than Freeman, but his line is giving up over three sacks per game, and State’s defensive line, particularly Willie Young – is getting in the quarterback’s face.

Between State’s newfound pass rush and a stingy secondary, Yates won’t be bringing the Tar Heels victory on Saturday.


Finally, an opponent won’t be able to run the ball

While being great against the pass, the Pack has struggled almost equally against the run.

Six times this year, State’s opponent has ran for over 200 yards.

But thankfully for the Pack, Carolina comes in 106th nationally in rushing offense while State has been steadily improving.

Miami, due mostly to its horrendous passing game, ran the ball 60 times last week for over 300 yards against State. It sounds as though this team was gashed, but State did keep the Canes out of the end zone when it had to, and freshman phenom Graig Cooper was bottled up.

State previously held East Carolina and Virginia under 100 yards on the ground. And while Carolina tries to determine which running back will be its starter, State will have the answer for each one.

Evans will pick the team apart

Daniel Evans has come of age the past three games. After all, it’s easier to throw the ball when you’re standing upright.

The offensive line protects Evans better than it has all year, giving him more time in the pocket to find the open man.

Against Virginia, freshman tackle Jake Vermiglio fended off All-American candidate Chris Long while Evans threw bombs all day to Donald Bowens for 205 yards and three touchdowns.

Even though the deep passes weren’t there, Evans found John Dunlap and Jamelle Eugene six times apiece to move the chains effectively against Miami.

Though Hilee Taylor may try his darndest, look for the line to keep Evans’ jersey clean in this one. With the added time, Evans will create chemistry with one of his receivers that will move the ball down the field.

Three freshman starters in the secondary for UNC won’t help the Heels’ cause either.

Special teams tilt in State’s favor

At first, this looks like a toss-up.

UNC’s Brandon Tate and NCSU’s Darrell Blackman are among the nation’s best in kickoff and punt return yards. Heck, they’re two of the best statistically in ACC history.

And if either team can get the ball within the 30-yard line, chances are good that Connor Barth or Steven Hauschka can put it in the uprights. The kickers are a combined 27-of-29 on field goals this season.

But the difference comes down to coverage.

Carolina lost the Wake Forest game by allowing Kevin Marion to take one, almost two kickoffs back for scores.

Blackman already has one returned kickoff for touchdown to his credit this year, coming against Clemson. The 99-yard return is the longest play in school history.

State’s coverage has been much stouter. Hauschka forced five touchbacks in six kickoff opportunities against Clemson, and State’s special teams unit has yet to let a player get a big return.

Punter Bradley Pierson doesn’t kick the ball too far, but it’s almost always too high for a return.

Even if Blackman doesn’t take one to the house, he should take advantage of a weak Heels coverage unit and greatly change field position throughout the game.