Mid-season Analysis of N.C. State

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Mid-season Analysis of N.C. State

N.C. State senior Gavin Grant drives the baseline on February 5, 2008.

By J. Mike Blake

Feb 8, 2008

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J. Mike Blake is covering N.C. State this season for WRAL.com. Here is his analysis of the Wolfpack halfway through the ACC season.

N.C. State has reeled off four wins in its last six games to draw even in ACC play at 4-4. Sidney Lowe’s group hardly resembles the squad that was blasted so badly that some began to question the team’s heart and effort.

This mid-ACC season report – which uses statistics from ACC games only - will not only look back at what has transpired, and also forward at what the Wolfpack need to do in the second half of conference play to keep its winning ways going.

Going OK…

Javi Gonzalez is a shell of his former self, and that’s a good thing. The freshman has displayed uncanny poise down the stretch of games while rapidly improving all along. His assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 10th for ACC games. Sure, his shot could still use some work, but considering his thumb still looks as if a cartoon character dropped an anvil on it, he’s doing alright.

Going good…

Four starts for Ben McCauley, three wins for the Pack. Connection? You bet. This guy is a winner with an endless motor. His numbers haven’t overwhelmed anyone yet as his hustle plays don’t often show up in the stat sheet. He should probably start scoring soon though. Anytime he gets in double-figures, it’s almost assuredly a win for the Pack.

Going great…

State considers itself an inside-out team, in that order. But maybe Lowe should reconsider since the Pack is the best 3-point shooting team in league play, knocking down 41.4 percent of its attempts. Two players, Courtney Fells and Gavin Grant, are shooting better than 50 percent from beyond the arch.

Needs improvement…

How can a team with players this tall lose the rebound battle this much? The only three ACC games in which the Pack out-rebounded an opponent were Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. In two of those, it was more due to the fact the other team shot great from the field than anything State did. Hey, it’s not J.J. Hickson’s fault. He’s ranked third in the conference with nine rebounds per ACC game.

Needs remodeling…

Nobody looks more unsure of himself than Marques Johnson. It’s to the point where he actually backs down opposing guards at halfcourt rather than taking them off the dribble. If Gonzalez can improve as the year goes along, why not Johnson? His timid presence on the court doesn’t necessarily harm the team, but it sure hasn’t helped either.

Needs to be scrapped…

There’s still this notion that Brandon Costner will somehow find himself before the season ends. Forget it. Look, if Costner turns it on and becomes the player we saw last year, great, but don’t hold your breath.

Best moment…

It’s hard to decide between Grant’s steal and lay-up in overtime against Miami or McCauley’s dunk-back at the horn versus Wake. Let’s let Gavin decide:
“Are you kidding? A dunk? That’s way better,” Grant said. “[Ben] dunked it, all I did was lay it in.”

Worst moment…

Call it the “unlucky 13.” The first-half debacle and ensuing massacre at North Carolina left a foul taste in State fans’ mouths that still lingers today. It’s hard to imagine playing so poorly that Tar Heel fans would actually cheer for State, but it happened, and it was done so mockingly. The wounds stemming from that game won’t be healed unless the Pack can pull off the upset on Feb. 20.

Best play…

A one-handed stuff by Courtney Fells of Duke’s Lance Thomas is a play rarely seen in any basketball game, much less a close battle (at that point in the game) between two ACC schools, one being the No. 3 team in the nation. It was a nice outlet pass too.

Team MVP…

Grant has been the backbone of the team – and that’s what you expect from a senior. He does it all, averaging 14.4 points a game while shooting at a .524 clip from long range. He shows up at the end of games and in the second half. State might need to get him more shots earlier on the way he’s been performing. He’s also underrated defensively - without his lockdown of Jack McClinton the Pack would’ve never forced an overtime against Miami. And finally, he’s having more assists than turnovers this season.

Best Defensive Player…

Gonzalez is the steal artist, and Hickson the one-man block party. But this award goes to Fells, who always takes on the other team’s toughest assignment without complaint.

Outlook…

Eight games remain, four each at home and away.

Luckily for State, it’s playing its best basketball when it matters, going down the stretch of conference play.

Currently, the Pack is 37th in the RPI, a huge boost to a 15-7 record. The upcoming half of the schedule favors the Pack, giving them a legitimate chance to make a run at 9-7.

The toughest opponents left on the schedule (UNC, Duke, Clemson) are all at home. State will need to beat one of those three to give it its first real signature win. Villanova and Miami have deteriorated since the Pack beat those two teams earlier this year.

From here on out, the Pack must win the ones it’s supposed to win, and steal one or two wins away from the big guns. All of a sudden, it will have winning résumé to present to the selection committee in March.

Not bad for a team that once lost to East Carolina, or one whose players once resembled the Tin Man from The Wizard of Oz. State may have found something with Gonzalez and McCauley getting the starting nods, but only time will tell if that plan, and the improved play, will hold up down the stretch.

Most Recent Comments

Turheel: I am a Woffer, but I could not have said it better. When UNC was going for the NCAA championship, no one could have pulled harder for them than my wife and I. I compliment the UNC fans like you, who have told me that they are so glad that NC State is back into the competition. It makes for exciting basketball for all of us. And, whoever wins, and goes to the NCAA or NIT, I will pull for that team with all of my heart. I hope the ACC wins the NCAA every year .... forever!

Just noticed my post was cut short. I'll resume with that last paragraph...

I know State was about 75% of the reason for that 13 point total. State missed WIDE OPEN shots. That's not a credit to Carolina because State was getting the open looks we wanted, plenty of them. We just didn't knock them down. Credit goes to Carolina for snagging the rebounds, though.

But that game is not lingering, at least for me. Not any more than losing to Carolina EVER does! And we don't have to beat Carolina in Raleigh to remove that "foul taste" (it is already gone). Of course we always want to beat Carolina, especially at home. I expect Carolina to bring their "A" game, and if they do, well I just hope State brings their "A" game, too. If we do, it could be a game.

Frankly, I'm more concerned with getting enough wins, and some quality wins, to secure an at-large bid to the NCAAT. Beating Carolina is a plus, but it's not the end-all, be-all goal of our season, even if Carolina fans like to think so!

Blah, blah, blah.

I agree with just about every word of this article. I disagree with this entire paragraph, though:

"Call it the “unlucky 13.” The first-half debacle and ensuing massacre at North Carolina left a foul taste in State fans’ mouths that still lingers today. It’s hard to imagine playing so poorly that Tar Heel fans would actually cheer for State, but it happened, and it was done so mockingly. The wounds stemming from that game won’t be healed unless the Pack can pull off the upset on Feb. 20."

That "foul taste" certainly does not linger in THIS Wolfpack fan's mouth. That game is ancient history to me. State was mired in severe chemistry and ego problems until halftime of that game. Ever since that halftime, State has played like a different team (even if Duke slaughtered us in the second half, they just played awesome... credit them for that).

I know State was about 75% of the reason for that 13 point total. State missed WIDE OPEN shots. That's not a credit to Carolina. It's al

tarheelalum, I was there and I cheered, as well. State is gelling at the precise moment it needs to. I think they will have more problems with their home games than the away ones. I will pull for them in each and every one, except the obvious Feb. 20th matchup...Go Heels! Say a prayer for Coach Yow...

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