ACC Tournament

SAS program picks NCAA field

Posted March 18, 2013

A trio of college professors didn't need CBS' Selection Show to start filling in their NCAA Tournament brackets. They used a program developed at Cary-based SAS to perfectly predict the field of 68 teams.

"We had a fantastic year. It was wonderful," said Allen Lynch, director of the Sports Business program at Mercer University.

Lynch and his partners plugged in teams and records and ran SAS analytics to determine the 37 at-large teams in this year's tournament. They have been working on their project – they call it the Dance Card – for 15 years, with a success rate of about 93 percent. In 2012, the team got 36 of 37 teams. In 2013, they hit 100 percent.

"We've been doing this forever," Lynch said. "I got an email from my co-author last night. It was just an email but, man, I saw him jumping up and down in that email. He was so excited."

SAS Communications Manager Mike Nemecek says the same type of technology used to predict the basketball teams is often used in the business world to predict sales patterns, where it would make sense to put a store, even who should get a promotion.

"The analytics from SAS is helping the Dance Card professors pick better, but it's also helping organizations today make better business decisions," he said.

As basketball fans begin filling out their brackets, Lynch's work is done. The professors have perfected picking what teams will make the tournament, but they do not analyze performance in the Big Dance. Lynch said that would encompass a who new set of variables including player injuries and referee calls.

5 Comments

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  • Hokies94 Mar 19, 5:05 p.m.

    SAS did a solid job in picking the 37 to enter. There are several companies that are doing this as well. They still can't do much more than this. No one knows whom will win; yet. Play the games.

  • sburks1906 Mar 19, 10:34 a.m.

    Uh, is that SAS program for sale?

  • davidgnews Mar 19, 10:01 a.m.

    In the end, a computer program will be overruled by 'any given day' in the basketball world !

  • 321oohaw Mar 19, 9:58 a.m.

    I will be impressed when those nerds can successfully pick every winner in the tournament.

  • Ken D. Mar 18, 7:34 p.m.

    So who needs Joe Lunardi?

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Scoreboard
Local
Final
DUKE 47
TULA 13
Final
ECU 70
UNC 41
 
Final
TOWSN 31
NCCU 20
 
Final
NCSU 42
PRES 0
 
Final
KAN 2
DET 3
Final
CHC 8
LOS 7
Final
OAK 0
PHI 3
Final
NYY 3
TOR 6
Final
COL 5
ARI 1
Final
BAL 7
BOS 2
 
8th
PIT 0
MIL 0
 
9th
TAM 3
CWS 0
 
6th
MIN 2
CLE 7
 
9th
ATL 2
NYM 4
 
Final
HOU 10
SEA 1
9th
MIA 2
WAS 3
 
8th
STL 8
CIN 4
 
5th
SDP 1
SFG 0
 
4th
ANA 3
TEX 0
 
Final
WISC 68
BGU 17
Final
MSU 73
EMICH 14
Final
VT 24
GT 27
Final
PITT 20
IOWA 24
Final
RICE 42
ODU 45
Final
UGA 66
TROY 0
Final
SYR 20
MD 34
Final
DUKE 47
TULA 13
Final
COL 21
HAW 12
Final
AKR 17
MARS 48
Final
WAKE 24
ARMY 21
Final
KU 24
CMICH 10
Final
ALA 42
UF 21
Final
FIU 3
LOU 34
Final
ECU 70
UNC 41
 
Final
NAVY 24
RUTG 31
Final
SMU 6
TEXAM 58
Final
MICH 10
UTAH 26
Final
BYU 41
UVA 33
Final
WYO 20
FATL 19
Final
MIZZ 27
IND 31
Final
PSU 48
UMASS 7
Final
MINN 24
SJST 7
Final
ILL 42
TXST 35
 
Final
WASH 45
GASTATE 14
 
4th
SMISS 14
APPST 7
 
7:00pm Tonight
TOL 6
BST 0
4th
OHIO 29
IDAHO 17
 
4th
CIN 31
UMO 21
 
4th
MEM 36
MTST 10
 
4th
LSU 16
MSST 34
 
4th
ARK 45
NILL 14
 
4th
ARKST 7
UTST 14
 
4th
SALABAMA 6
GASO 21
 
3rd
WVU 24
OKLA 31
 
3rd
VANDY 21
SCAR 27
 
3rd
NEB 24
MIAMI 14
 
3rd
NMST 14
NMU 21
 
3rd
HOU 13
UNLV 7
 
Half
FSU 3
CLEM 10
 
10:00pm Tonight
ARZ
CAL
10:30pm Tonight
BSU
LALAF
10:30pm Tonight
WASU
OREG
10:30pm Tonight
ORST
SDST
Final
TOWSN 31
NCCU 20
 
Final
NCSU 42
PRES 0