Rough waters for ACC a sign of spring
Apr 26, 2009
The long-expected decision by Duke’s Gerald Henderson to probably turn pro came just short of an April 26 deadline to declare his intentions regarding the NBA draft. Now he and dozens of other collegians have until June 15, 10 days prior to the draft, to test the waters, as the saying goes, and see if they sink or swim in the currents of basketball commerce.
This process can prove sobering rather than affirming, as UNC’s Wayne Ellington and Danny Green discovered last year and Virginia’s Sean Singletary and Clemson’s James Mays found the year before. As celebrated investor Warren Buffett once noted, “only when the tide goes out do you find out who is not wearing a bathing suit.”
These metaphorical spring swims aren’t much fun for college programs either. Next year the player tryout period will be much shorter, thanks to an NCAA initiative that originated with the ACC, whose coaches disdain the present arrangement. “We deal with such uncertainty as to who our teams are going to be from year to year,” lamented Dino Gaudio, Wake Forest’s coach.
Sure enough, since the 2009 season ended the majority of ACC squads came a step closer to prematurely losing one of their premier players, departures that could shape the league race in 2009-10 and beyond. From Duke to Georgia Tech, Maryland to Miami to Wake Forest, key contributors are exploring their pro options while remaining within arm’s length of re-grasping their eligibility. All that coaches, teammates, classmates and fans can do is wait and speculate.
Miami power forward Dwayne Collins is probably coming back for one more year. Averaging 10.6 points and 7.3 rebounds isn’t the stuff of stardom, especially when your numbers are even worse in conference play.
Less certain are the prospects for Georgia Tech’s Gani Lawal, Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez, and Wake’s Jeff Teague -- exceptional players who, like Henderson, preserved their eligibility even as they try out for NBA clubs. Each has been mentioned as a possible first-round choice, bringing a guaranteed contract, in what’s regarded as a weak draft.
A player can plunge into the pool of pro possibility just once and still retain the option to return to school, assuming he doesn’t hire an agent. Paying for advise is immediate grounds for ending the fiction of amateurism as defined by the NCAA.
UNC’s Ellington and Ty Lawson tested their prospects last spring, but didn't hire agents. Only a DWI likely kept Lawson from leaving. So, following a sterling junior season, it was no surprise when the 2009 ACC Player of the Year announced last week that his Tar Heel career is over.
The departure interrupts a nice run for Roy Williams, who had either Raymond Felton or Lawson at the helm of his breakneck offense in five of the past six years. The prospect of turning over the reins to Larry Drew II, a version of a late-career Quentin Thomas, can’t be all that appealing – even as the Heels won the ’09 title, Williams put in a call to John Wall, this year’s can’t-miss prospect at point guard.
Ellington still has doubters on the basis of strength, consistency, toughness, defense. But, like UNC’s Sean May in 2005, his stock will never be higher than it was at the conclusion of a junior season capped by a great NCAA run and a Most Outstanding Player award in the Final Four. So he, too, is gone.
Despite losing four starters, including seniors Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green, North Carolina will be better in 2010 than it was when it rebuilt in 2006, the only season in the past five that did not yield at least 31 wins. The ‘06 squad made do after May, Felton, Rashad McCants and Marvin Williams left early.
Next year’s Heels have a seasoned playmaker in Drew II and a veteran leader in red-shirt Marcus Ginyard. The front line will be formidable, starting with Ed Davis, whom some believe could vie for the top spot in next year’s draft. (Happily, promising ACC newcomers like Davis, Wake’s Al-Farouq Aminu, and Florida State’s Solomon Alabi decided to stick around for at least one more season.)
Over at Duke, the potential loss of Henderson, along with role players Dave McClure and Greg Paulus, shouldn’t notably weaken the Blue Devils. Henderson seized stardom in calendar year 2009, but for NBA purposes must prove his size, outside shooting, and ballhandling.
Returning sophomore Eliot Williams is similar to Henderson in size and athleticism, and will be as good defensively. He can be similarly spectacular too. The Devils also return Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, and add a pair of promising big men.
Unfortunately, if Henderson leaves, as expected, a return to Final Four status becomes a bit less likely unless Wall decides to migrate from Raleigh to Durham. Mike Krzyzewski has previously taken Duke teams to the Final Four without a back-to-the-basket center, an explosive point guard, or overwhelming squad athleticism. But, not recently.
Meanwhile N.C. State, anxious to finally catch up with the neighbors in Sidney Lowe’s fourth season, loses starters Brandon Costner, Courtney Fells and Ben McCauley. Costner left with eligibility remaining. Wall could pick the Wolfpack and immediately elevate the program. More likely he will look to emulate Derrick Rose, who took Memphis to the 2008 NCAA title game by joining an already deep squad, then became the top choice in the subsequent draft.
Probably the ACC team most affected by pro fever in 2008-09 was Wake Forest. Having three sure NBA first-rounders, all underclassmen, is rather uncommon at Wake. The Demon Deacons boasted Teague and forwards Aminu and James Johnson, and the resulting attentions, legitimate and otherwise, proved “a huge, huge distraction,” Gaudio said. “If I told you some of the stories, you would shudder.”
So far only Johnson, a sophomore, is definitely gone, a result forecast by Gaudio when the unknown prospect arrived from Wyoming two years ago.
Internal woes caused by NBA fever have beset other ACC programs in recent years, a strain few coaches willingly discuss. That stress may have taken a toll on the Deacs as the ’09 season reached its crescendo, with individuals tugged in multiple directions.
Of course, as if often noted, the uncertainties could be better managed if college basketball players, like those in sports such as baseball, were required to stay in school for more than one season. (It wasn’t that long ago that jumps straight from high school were allowed.) The NBA is about to renegotiate its contract with the player’s union, and Commissioner David Stern reportedly will propose a minimum age of 20 for league players. That would result in most American aspirants attending college for at least two years.
The union is said to be opposed, assuring more choppy surf in springs to come.
