The high stakes game of basketball recruiting
Nov 12, 2009
It's only fitting that we just saw the finish of the World Series of Poker because in the Texas Hold'em of college basketball recruiting, we're headed for a Friday announcement of the consensus number one player in the class of 2010: Harrison Barnes.
The Ames, Iowa, product has pared his finalists to six schools, but it appears that the real battle is down to just two or three heavyweights. In most situations, the decision of a high school recruit isn't earth-shattering, but in this instance, Barnes' decision could potentially turn around a recent trend, or it could leave a national power up the river without a paddle.
OK, enough with the vague references. There are a half dozen schools that Barnes is considering. Most people agree that it's down to three: Kansas, North Carolina and Duke. Let's leave the Jayhawks out of the equation for a second, though not because he couldn't end up in Lawrence, because the chances are very real -- it is substantially closer to his Iowa home, according to Rand-McNally. The real issue is what happens should Duke lose out in this battle to North Carolina.
Let's go back to the Texas Hold'em analogy for a second. Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has been sitting at the table since they invented green felt and playing cards. Sure, Kansas' Bill Self, Oklahoma's Jeff Capel and Ben Howland of UCLA have had chips on the table for a while, but not nearly as big a stack as the one that sits in front of Coach K. But, about an hour ago, Roy Williams came off the golf course, wearing a powder blue golf vest emblazoned with "2005 AND 2009 National Champions," plopped a big ol’ bag of money down, sat next to Krzyzewski, glanced at his cards briefly and daggummit if he didn't just say, "All in".
Duke has been recruiting Harrison Barnes for a long time. He is exactly the type of a player that Duke HAS TO HAVE. Above all else, he's a tremendous player; a 6-foot-6 scorer from the wing that Duke has had little trouble attracting and placing into the NBA. He's also smart as a whip, a tremendous academic prospect, with an eye on a business degree apart from a basketball career. Many liken him to a better version of Shane Battier.
That is exactly the type of player Duke needs in their program -- exactly the type of player Duke hasn't been attracting over the last few years. Sure, Duke has gotten their share of outstanding college players. Kyle Singler may very well win the league's player of the year award this year. Jon Scheyer could challenge for a spot on the league's top all-conference team. Either of the Plumlee's, Miles or Mason, could end up as outstanding players as well. But, the NBA isn't beating down Duke's door for any of these guys today.
Meanwhile, down 15-501, the pros are salivating over Ed Davis and maybe even John Henson and there are more can't-miss prospects already on the way for Roy Williams and company. With the Tar Heels reaching three Final Fours and winning a pair of national championships since Duke last made it to the season's final weekend, it's about time the Blue Devils start winning some battles on the recruiting trail. That is what makes Harrison Barnes’ decision so critical for Duke -- much more vital to their success than it would be a blow to Carolina's should he turn Roy Williams down.
It's Duke who has invested more time and energy in this arena. It's Duke that is chasing their most hated rivals in the standings. And, it's Duke that has this public perception -- real or imagined, it matters not -- that they currently live in a Baby Blue Universe. Duke has everything to gain but they also have everything to lose. North Carolina wants Barnes, much like an art collector wants another Renoir. They're collecting great players. The difference is that if the Heels lose out, they just move on to the next one, maybe a Matisse.
We've seen the flop -- Duke reaching the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament just once in the last three years and losing to a lower-seeded team every year since 2004. We've seen the turn -- or in this case, the return of Roy Williams -- as the Tar Heels have won two of the last four national titles. Now, the final card -- the river -- will tell us if these two rivals will move forward as equals or if Carolina will continue rolling over Duke like the mighty Mississippi rolls into the Gulf of Mexico
