Holliday: Duke chases historic fourth straight win vs. UNC
Posted October 25, 2019 9:41 p.m. EDT
David Cutcliffe has guided the Duke football program to a very special place. The Blue Devils have defeated archrival North Carolina for three consecutive seasons. In the last 60 autumns, the Duke program has accomplished this feat just one other time -under Steve Spurrier in 1987-89. Saturday, Duke looks to extend the streak to four. Four Duke wins in a row? That's not quite unprecedented, but still extremely rare. Eddie Cameron did it once during the war years, 1943-45, but that four game win streak was compressed into three seasons because Duke and Carolina played twice in 1943; furthermore, the Tar Heels answered by ripping off four straight wins of their own in the Weiner-Justice years of 1946-49.
Duke and North Carolina have been playing football since 1888. Only once have the Blue Devils owned bragging rights for four consecutive campaigns. Wallace Wade began the streak in 1950 as Duke beat UNC in Wade's final game as coach. Bill Murray took over, and the Blue Devils won in each of Murray's first six seasons. So that's seven straight Duke wins. But if the present day Blue Devils can win Saturday that would hoist the Cutcliffe era into record book prominence, just behind the Wade-Murray run which ended some 63 Novembers ago.
North Carolina, of course, has enjoyed its own stretches of domination. Duke defeated UNC in 1893 - the Trinity College days, actually - but could not celebrate a subsequent win over the Tar Heels until 1932, Wade's second year as coach. The schools did not play from 1895-1921, but still, that's almost four decades between Duke victories.
UNC won six straight games in the Bill Dooley-Dick Crum era; and then the Tar Heels posted 13 straight under Mack Brown, Carl Torbush, and John Bunting. Duke won in Ted Roof's first season, 2003, but that breakthrough was followed by eight more UNC wins. Enter Cutcliffe. Beginning with his fifth season, Duke has taken five of the last seven in this series, including three straight. Will it be four? Or can Mack Brown, in his second tour at UNC, find a way to win back the Victory Bell, which goes to the winning team in this Durham-Chapel Hill battle.
Inconsistent Devils
It has been difficult to get a good read on this Duke team. The Blue Devils looked pretty spectacular at times in thrashing Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. But Duke labored mightily on offense against Pitt and Virginia, ultimately dragging the defense along. Duke struggled with both the run and the pass in those two games, largely I think, because the Blue Devils' offensive line had difficulty blocking the Pitt and Virginia defensive fronts. Cutcliffe told his press conference this week that he thought the interior blocking against Virginia was OK, but that was all:
"Where I was most disappointed was just in our perimeter game," Cutcliffe said. "We got absolutely nothing out of it and we blocked very poorly in that regard. We have to be consistent from sideline to sideline."
The numbers don't lie. In conference games, Duke ranks 12th in total offense at 332 yards per game. The Blue Devils are dead last in the conference only stats for passing, throwing for just 161 yards against their four ACC opponents. Here's the good news for Duke-the North Carolina defense allows 407 yards per game. That's actually sixth best in the wide open ACC, and far better than Tar Heel defenses in previous years, but UNC is a good 100 yards per game more generous than Virginia or Pitt. The Tar Heels allow 87 more yards per game than Duke, whose defense this season has been stellar, at times.
Hot Heels, cold Heels
Where Duke has lacked consistency from game to game, UNC has run hot and cold - within the same game. It's not unusual for the Tar Heels to score during the game's first few plays. We saw that against Miami and last week against Virginia Tech. But this team is also prone to scoring droughts, something that surfaced against both the Hurricanes and Hokies, and to a certain extent against Clemson, though the Tigers' defense regularly creates lean times for opposing offenses. The averages for UNC are quite respectable: Fifth in total offense at 439 yards per game in conference play; eighth in rushing at 149 yards per game; second in passing at 290 yards per game.
This team does not get blown out. Other than the Georgia Tech game which was a comfortable win, every contest has been decided in the final minute, or in overtime. This is a 3-4 team with a resourceful defense and a dangerous, though inconsistent offense. Execution has become an issue in Chapel Hill, especially in the critical stages of games.
Coach Mack Brown was asked if the close losses have hurt the team's confidence: "I feel good," Brown said.
"I think they're very confident and what we've done is shown them why we lost the game. We had four or five one-plays to win the game."
Duke provides another crunch time opportunity for the Tar Heels. This quite likely will be a close game.
Duke offense vs. UNC defense
Look for Quentin Harris to run the football. North Carolina has been gouged by running quarterbacks all season, from Jamie Newman of Wake Forest, to Zac Thomas of Appalachian State, to Hendon Hooker and Quincy Patterson of Virginia Tech. If I'm David Cutcliffe, I'm running Harris out of Duke's triple option set; I'm even running Harris out of the empty backfield set-he scored a touchdown that way against Virginia Tech-and I'm running Harris until UNC defensive coordinator Jay Bateman adjusts his schemes to account for the quarterback. When Harris runs, that ultimately takes some of the defensive focus away from Duke's speedy running backs, Deon Jackson and Mateo Durant, both of whom have contributed significantly to Duke's sixth in the ACC rushing average of 171 yards per game. But when Harris is contained, yards for the running backs are more difficult to come by. Jackson, for instance, rushed for only 60 yards against Pitt and 35 yards against Virginia. Establishing the run is important, because Duke's passing attack feeds off play acton. Harris has thrown effectively at times, but Duke completes only about 53% of its passes for 161 yards. Even Georgia Tech is slightly better.
North Carolina, as mentioned, allows yards, using something of a "bend don't break" philosophy. UNC is just 11th in the ACC in defense against the run, allowing 177 yards per game. So Duke should have some success running against a team with that kind of track record. UNC gives up 230 yards per game through the air. Yet, the Tar Heels boast the ACC's sixth best scoring defense, allowing 27 points per game. The Heels rarely give up the big play, Quincy Patterson's long touchdown run last week notwithstanding. UNC finds ways to get off the field without allowing points. The Tar Heels rank sixth in the league in stopping third downs - opponents convert just 37% of their opportunities against this defense. UNC gets 2 ½ drive killing sacks per game; and the Tar Heels lead the league in turnover margin in conference play. That is potentially big.
Turnovers could play a huge part in Saturday's game. There seems to be a correlation between Duke turnovers and ACC losses:
"We have 16 turnovers as an offense for the season with 11 of them coming from our two conference losses," Cutcliffe points out."When you turn the ball over, you really have no chance to win in a conference to where every team you play is gifted."
Duke has been good in the red zone, scoring ten touchdowns in 14 trips. But how often can the Blue Devils get to the red zone against UNC? That's the question of the day.
UNC offense vs. Duke defense
Most of the time when Sam Howell completes a long pass downfield, it is preceded by a chunk run. It's not so much that UNC's passing game is based on play action, but the downfield routes become more available when the Tar Heels break off a good run or two, set a fast tempo, and get the opposing defense off balance. Can UNC run effectively against Duke? The Tar Heels did not run well in the second half at Virginia Tech beyond the opening drive. Result? UNC scored only one touchdown in the final 24 minutes of regulation, and that came on a trick play, a double reverse pass. VT is only the ACC's eighth best run defense. Duke ranks fourth, allowing just 133 yards per game.
Mack Brown acknowledged the Tar Heels had some "guard, center issues" last week against the Hokies. Has the coaching staff found a fix? Michael Carter and Javonte Williams both have had their moments this season-when they can get out of their own backfield.
UNC lost wide receiver Dyami Brown to injury in Blacksburg, and that's a big loss. Still, quarterback Howell has multiple playmakers that will test a Duke secondary now missing Josh Blackwell, who was injured at Virginia. Dazz Newsome ranks among the ACC's receiving leaders, bringing in five catches per game. Both Beau Corrales and Antoine Greene caught touchdown passes last week. And Howell leads the ACC in passing, 285 yards per game in conference play, and he ranks first among quarterbacks still active this season in passing efficiency.
Duke counters with some elite numbers of its own. The Blue Devils allow just 320 yards total offense per game, and just 186 yards per game through the air. Both of those rank among the ACC's top four. Duke allows a lot of points, relative to the stinginess with which the Blue Devils give up yards, 28 points per game, but that's because of all the turnovers. If Duke doesn't turn it over, this team becomes much more difficult to score on.
In what should be a close game, here are a couple more stats to ponder: Duke has allowed just one fourth down conversion success in six tries; also, the Blue Devils rank third in the ACC in red zone defense, allowing just 10 touchdowns in 19 red zone visits. So field goals could really matter this week. Brown in fact, announced Monday that he's changing kickers, with Jonathan Kim replacing Noah Ruggles:
"We're 10-of-16 on field goals, three of those being blocked," Brown noted. "But still, we've got to do a better job. When we get down to that last-second kick, we've got to make it."
The rivalry
On top of all the compelling statistics, this is a rivalry game, a rivalry that has given us remarkable moments through the years. North Carolina should be hungry, having not defeated any FBS in-state opponent since 2015. But motivation for Saturday could be more about atoning for last week:
"The Victory Bell is on the line," says Brown. "I love David Cutcliffe; he's one of the great guys in this business and has been in it for a long time. He gets good kids who play hard for him. They're coming off a tough game with Virginia last week. And my experience is that we're going to have to pick it up because we're disappointed with a tough loss. They're going to pick it up because they're disappointed in their performance at Virginia."
Cutcliffe's take: "North Carolina is an example of another really good Coastal Division team. It's always the biggest one when it's the next one, but certainly this is Duke-North Carolina. So, it's always going to have a lot at stake, and this one certainly does with both of us still battling to try to maintain the ability to stay in the Coastal Division race."
Duke can make history by keeping the Victory Bell another year. UNC change change history if it can defeat an in-state rival. In the short term, Saturday's winner keeps hope alive for a trip to the ACC Championship Game, and moves a step closer toward bowl eligibility.
